The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization by Peter Zeihan

‘The past century or so has been a bit of a blitzkrieg of progress.’

According to Peter Zeihan, an American geopolitical analyst and author, we are heading towards deglobalization which will (apparently) result in chaos and disaster. He believes that the period between 1980 and 2015, an era of plenty, reliability, and relative stability, was an anomaly in human history. From 2022, Mr Zeihan writes that everything will become more difficult to obtain (and more expensive). He goes to great lengths in this book to explain why.

Part of the problem, he writes, is the fact that the world’s labour force will decrease because of most countries having rapidly ageing populations. Mr Zeihan also sees the USA stepping back from its leadership role, including the protection of the shipping lanes which are an essential part of the global economy. And then there’s climate change, which will undermine food production in many parts of the world. There’s more to it than that: Mr Zeihan also writes about energy security, industrial materials, and manufacturing.

American exceptionalism comes into play: according to Mr Zeihan the Americas are in the best position because of the USA’s adaptability, agricultural capacity, industrial base and natural resources. Those countries that rely on trade will suffer, as will China. Mr Zeihan predicts that China will collapse within a decade or so.

I have very mixed feelings about this book.  On one hand, I agree with him that green technology in its current form is not suitable to meet the energy needs of much of the world. I can also see workforce challenges ahead. On the other hand, I do not see China collapsing within a decade and I am not convinced that American exceptionalism will carry the day.

While I think that this book is worth reading, I don’t agree with all of Mr Zeihan’s conclusions.

Of course, Mr Zeihan might be right. I am unlikely to still be here in 2060 to find out.

Jennifer Cameron-Smith

Book 9 in my 2023 Nonfiction Reader Challenge. I’ve entered as a ‘Nonfiction Grazer’ and this book should be included under the heading of ‘Business and Economics’.