Final 2019 election results: education divide explains the Coalition’s upset victory (The Conversation)

The most important reason for the Coalition’s victory was that Morrison was both liked and trusted by lower-educated voters, while Labor leader Bill Shorten was not.
Mick Tsikas/AAP

Adrian Beaumont, University of Melbourne

At the May 18 election, the size of the lower house was expanded from 150 to 151 seats. The Coalition parties won 77 seats (up one since the 2016 election), Labor 68 (down one) and the crossbench six (up one). The Coalition government holds a three-seat majority.

Owing to redistributions and the loss of Wentworth to independent Kerryn Phelps at an October 2018 byelection, the Coalition notionally had 73 seats before the election, a one-seat advantage over Labor. Using this measure, the Coalition gained a net four seats in the election.

The Coalition gained the Queensland seats of Herbert and Longman, the Tasmanian seats of Braddon and Bass, and the New South Wales seat of Lindsay. Labor’s only offsetting gain was the NSW seat of Gilmore. Corangamite and Dunkley are not counted as Labor gains as they were redistributed into notional Labor seats.

Four of the six pre-election crossbenchers easily held their seats – Adam Bandt (Melbourne), Andrew Wilkie (Clark), Rebekha Sharkie (Mayo) and Bob Katter (Kennedy). The Liberals narrowly regained Wentworth from Phelps, but independent Zali Steggall thrashed Tony Abbott 57%-43% in Warringah. In Indi, independent Helen Haines succeeded retiring independent Cathy McGowan, defeating the Liberals by 51.4%-48.6%.

The Coalition easily defeated independent challengers in Cowper and Farrer.

While Bandt was re-elected, the Greens went backwards in their other inner-Melbourne target seats of Wills and Cooper. Only in Kooyong did the Greens manage to beat Labor into second.

The final primary votes were 41.4% Coalition (down 0.6%), 33.3% Labor (down 1.4%), 10.4% Greens (up 0.2%), 3.4% United Australia Party (UAP) and 3.1% One Nation (up 1.8%).

The final two-party vote was 51.5% for the Coalition to 48.5% for Labor, a 1.2% swing in the Coalition’s favour from the 2016 election. It is the first pro-government swing since the 2004 election.

It was expected the Coalition would do better once the 15 “non-classic” seats were included; these are seats where the final two candidates were not Coalition and Labor. However, 11 of these seats swung to Labor, including a 9.0% swing in Warringah and a 7.9% swing in Wentworth. Eight non-classics were inner-city electorates that tended to swing to Labor.

The table below shows the number of seats in each state and territory, the Coalition’s number of seats, the Coalition’s percentage of seats, the gains for the Coalition compared to the redistribution, the Coalition’s two-party vote, the swing to the Coalition in two-party terms, and the number of Labor seats.

Final seats won and votes cast in the House for each state and nationally.

Four of the six states recorded swings to the Coalition in the range from 0.9% to 1.6%. Victoria was the only state that swung to Labor, by 1.3%. Queensland had a 4.3% swing to the Coalition, far larger than any other state. Labor did well to win a majority of NSW seats despite losing the two-party vote convincingly.

Official turnout in the election was 91.9%, up 0.9% from 2016. Analyst Ben Raue says 96.8% of eligible voters were enrolled, the highest ever. That means effective turnout was 89.0% of the population, up 2.6%.

Education divide explains Coalition’s win

Not only did Steggall thump Abbott in Warringah, the electorate’s 9.0% swing to Labor on a two-party basis was the largest swing to Labor in the country. Abbott’s two-party vote percentage of 52.1% was by far the lowest for a conservative candidate against Labor since Warringah’s creation in 1922; the next lowest was 59.5% in 2007.

While Abbott did badly, other divisive Coalition MPs performed well. Barnaby Joyce won 54.8% of the primary vote in New England and gained a 1.2% two-party swing against Labor. Peter Dutton had a 3.0% two-party swing to him in Dickson, and George Christensen had a massive 11.2% two-party swing to him in Dawson, the second-largest for the Coalition nationally.

According to the 2016 census, 42% of those aged 16 and over in Warringah had at least a bachelor’s degree, compared with 22% in Australia overall. Just 13.5% had at least a bachelor’s degree in New England, 19% in Dickson and 12% in Dawson.

In Victoria, which swung to Labor, 24.3% of the population had at least a bachelor’s degree in 2016, the highest of any state in the nation.

The Grattan Institute has charted swings to Labor and the Coalition, taking into account wealth and tertiary education. Only polling booths in the top-income quintile swung to Labor; the other four income quintiles swung to the Coalition.

Areas with low levels of tertiary education swung strongly to the Coalition in NSW and Queensland, but less so in Victoria. There were solid swings to Labor in areas with high levels of tertiary education.

Some of the swings are explained by contrary swings in 2016, when the Coalition under Malcolm Turnbull performed relatively worse in lower-educated areas and better in higher-educated areas. However, Queensland’s 58.4% two-party vote for the Coalition was 1.4% better than at the 2013 election, even though the national result is 2.0% worse. The large swings to the Coalition in regional Queensland are probably partly due to the Adani coal mine issue.

Morrison’s appeal to lower-educated voters

Since becoming prime minister, Scott Morrison’s Newspoll ratings have been roughly neutral, with about as many people saying they are satisfied with him as those dissatisfied. After Morrison became leader, I suggested on my personal website that the Coalition would struggle with educated voters, and this occurred in the election. However, Morrison’s appeal to those with a lower level of education more than compensated.

In my opinion, the most important reason for the Coalition’s upset victory was that Morrison was both liked and trusted by lower-educated voters, while they neither liked nor trusted Labor leader Bill Shorten.

Earlier this month, The Guardian published a long report on the social media “death tax” scare campaign. While this and other Coalition scare campaigns may have had an impact on the result, they did so by playing into lower-educated voters’ distrust of Shorten. Had these voters trusted Shorten, such scare campaigns would have had less influence.

Labor also ran scare campaign ads attacking Morrison for deals with Clive Palmer and Pauline Hanson. But I believe these ads failed to resonate because lower-educated voters liked Morrison better.

I think Morrison won support from the lower-educated because they are sceptical of “inner-city elites”. The Coalition leader emphasised his non-elite attributes during the campaign, such as by playing sport and going to church. Turnbull was perceived as a member of the elite, which could explain swings to Labor in lower-educated areas in 2016.

Parallels can be drawn to the 2017 election in the UK. Labour performed far better than expected in the election, reducing the Conservatives to a minority government when they were expected to win easily. Labour had adopted a pro-Brexit position, which may have sent a message to lower-educated voters that they could support the party.

This offers an option for Australian Labor to try to win back support from lower-educated voters: adopt a hardline immigration policy. Votes that Labor would lose to the Greens by doing this would likely be returned as preferences.

See also my similar article on how Donald Trump won the US 2016 presidential election.

The problem with the polls

The table below shows all national polls released in the final week compared to the election result. A poll estimate within 1% of the actual result is in bold.

Federal polls compared with election results, 2019.
Author provided

The polls did well on the One Nation and UAP votes, and were a little low on the Greens. The major source of error was that Labor’s vote was overstated and the Coalition’s was understated. Only Ipsos had Labor’s vote right, but it overstated the Greens vote by about three points – a common occurrence for Ipsos.

No poll since July 2018 had given the Coalition a primary vote of at least 40%. In the election, the Coalition parties received 41.4% of the vote.

As I said in my post-election write-up, it is likely that polls oversampled educated voters.

Seat polls during the campaign were almost all from YouGov Galaxy, which conducts Newspoll. The Poll Bludger says these polls were, like the national polls, biased against the Coalition.

Analyst Peter Brent has calculated the two-party vote for all election-day and early votes. The gap between election day and early votes increased to 5.0% in 2019 from 4.6% in 2016. This does not imply that polls missed because of a dramatic late swing to the Coalition in the final days; it is much more likely the polls have been wrong for a long time.

Boris Johnson very likely to be Britain’s next PM, and left wins Danish election

I wrote for The Poll Bludger on June 14 that, after winning the support of 114 of the 313 Conservative MPs in the first round of voting, Boris Johnson is virtually assured of becoming the next British PM. Polls suggest he will boost the Conservative vote.

I also wrote on my personal website on June 6 about the left’s win in the Danish election. Also covered: a new Israeli election, the German Greens’ surge, and the left gaining a seat in the May 4 Tasmanian upper house periodical elections.

Adrian Beaumont, Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Melbourne

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Let Me Finish: Trump, the Kushners, Bannon, New Jersey, and the Power of In-Your-Face Politics by Chris Christie

‘But a handful of selfish individuals sidetracked our very best efforts. They set loose toxic forces that have made Trump’s presidency far less effective than it would otherwise have been. If this tragedy is ever going to be reversed, it is vital that everyone know exactly how it occurred.’

I picked this book up, one of four or five that I’ve read about the Trump path to the White House. I find American presidential politics fascinating, unnerving and uncomfortable. And while a presidential election style is sneaking into Australian politics, I’m far more comfortable with our democratic processes. Sure, I don’t always like the election outcomes but at least the administration of government continues relatively predictably even after a change of government.

‘Here they were. They’d beaten everyone to capture the Republican primary. Election Day was less than three months off. And there was no-one in the entire campaign hierarchy who knew the very basics.’

I confess to being less interested in Chris Christie’s background as Governor of New Jersey than I am in his observations about running Trump’s transition team. I was dismayed to read that all the work done to prepare for transition was thrown out: no wonder that there have been so many personnel changes in key positions in the Trump Administration.

Worth reading? I thought so.

Jennifer Cameron-Smith

This Excellent Machine by Stephen Orr

‘Looking back, I can’t say what made 1984 so special.’

For Clem Whelan, 1984 is a pivotal year. He’s not sure what he wants to do with his life. He has choices to make, but decisions are not easy. He could matriculate (he’s smart enough) but he’s not interested. He might like to be a writer, and while his neighbour Peter encourages him, he’s not sure. It’s tough being a teenager on the brink of more responsibility. Clem lives in a working-class suburb of Adelaide, where just about everyone has lived long enough to have known him since he was a baby. He lives with his sister, mother and grandfather. There’s a mystery about his father, who left when he was young, but no-one will tell him.

So, Clem tries to make his own sense of the world: using his telescope to spy on his neighbours, looking to John Lennon on his wall for advice. His sister tells him he’s a pervert, the adults in his life encourage him in different directions, and his best friend Curtis gets hooked on sex.

I remember 1984, from a different perspective, as the mother of a small child. I remember Sunnyboys and Datsun 120Ys. But while I was reading Clem’s story, I was also remembering my own equivalent matriculation year in 1973. And I can hardly forget the Datsuns: my father was the service manager for a local Datsun (now Nissan) dealership in regional Tasmania and I learned to drive in Datsuns. But memories are often gentler than the actual experiences, of trying to negotiate a path through possibilities, of trying to work out what is important and why. Clem finds some teachers more helpful than others, but Nick the art teacher, the most helpful one, is quickly moved on.

‘Sometimes dreams are bouncy castles, half-filled with air.’

Clem’s grandfather is starting to grapple with dementia. He’s spent years working on cars, but he’s finding it more difficult to remember the sequence for repairs. But Clem’s grandfather has a dream: it involves Lasseter’s Reef and requires Clem to pass his driving test to help him get there.

This novel is peopled with interesting characters, each with their own story. And these stories feed into the novel Clem is writing about life; the excellent machine where people go in and emerge changed. Clem’s 1984 is generally a much more benign place than George Orwell’s ‘1984’.

‘Life has a way of making you live it.’

Which was your pivotal year? Was 1984 memorable for you? Clem’s story is worth reading.

I’ve only read three of Stephen Orr’s novels so far. I want to read the rest.

Jennifer Cameron-Smith

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The Postmistress by Alison Stuart

‘There will be other men, better prospects.’

December 1861, Liverpool in England. Adelaide Lewis is breakfasting with her father, Sir Daniel, as he goes through his morning post. And then Sir Daniel advises the calamitous news that the ship Evangeline has not made port in Savannah. The man Adelaide was hoping to marry was on that ship. Adelaide is distraught. Her father, Sir Daniel, tells her that marriage is not about love:

‘I have other plans for you, my girl. You’re not settling for any third sons when you could be a countess.’

Adelaide is seventeen and pregnant. She flees her home in Liverpool, England with her trusted servant Netty.

December 1871, Australia. Adelaide Greaves and her son Danny have made their home in the Victorian goldmining town of Maiden’s Creek. Adelaide is the postmistress: treated as an outsider by many but accepted by most as a widow doing her best.

Caleb Hunt, a Confederate soldier with a past of his own, ends up in Maiden’s Creek. An injury forces him to stay for a while.

Within this setting, Ms Stuart brings life on the Victorian goldfields to life. Mining is a hazardous occupation; the Australian bush holds its own dangers and diseases such as smallpox take their toll. There are several interesting secondary characters as well, including Sissy and Nell from Lil’s Place. But Adelaide’s world is turned upside down when aspects of the past emerge from the shadows. If I write any more about the story itself, I may well ruin it for a first-time reader.

I enjoyed this story, especially the way in which Ms Stuart depicted the (fictitious) town of Maiden’s Creek and its people. There’s plenty of drama including a couple of twists that I didn’t see coming as well as an ending that held my attention.

If you enjoy historical fiction with elements of danger, romance and tragedy, with a determined woman as the central character, then you may enjoy this as much as I did.

Recommended.

Note: My thanks to NetGalley and Harlequin Australia for providing me with a free electronic copy of this book for review purposes.

Jennifer Cameron-Smith

AWW2019

Devil’s Lair by Sarah Barrie

‘Forever, she thought, sounded just perfect.’

Life in the Hunter Valley for Callie and her husband Dale is idyllic. They have a winery, a beautiful home and gardens, a successful business. And then Dale dies violently.

Two years later, Callie takes refuge in Tasmania. Her friend Paisley has arranged for her to stay in a cottage in the grounds of an old mansion in southern Tasmania. Could this be the new start Callie is looking for? But the old mansion has a history, of witchcraft and murder, and that history threatens to overwhelm the present.

What can I tell you about this book without spoiling the suspense? Almost any description will give away some detail which will (trust me) be important in appreciating the story. Callie is driven to question her own sanity at times: she’s willing to think that she might have an overactive imagination, but some events defy any logical explanation. And, at the same time as Callie is trying to fit in and find her own place, others are having their lives destroyed.

I found it easy to get caught up in the story, to allow the setting to transport me into aspects I usually would not enjoy. The pace of the story didn’t allow me time to bring my usual cynicism to tales of witchcraft and trying to understand who murdered whom (and why, as well as who might be next) kept me turning the pages. And the ending? You’ll need to read it for yourself to find out.

If you like gothic settings, if you enjoy suspenseful mystery with a twist (or two), then you may enjoy this novel as well. Just pick it up, start reading and follow the story.

Note: My thanks to NetGalley and Harlequin Australia for providing me with a free electronic copy of this book for review purposes.

Jennifer Cameron-Smith

#AWW2019

Hitch by Kathryn Hind

‘It’s really not safe, travelling around like this.’

The novel begins with Amelia and her dog Lucy, walking along the Stuart Highway, counting the posts, trying to hitch a ride. The desert is an unforgiving place, and Amelia surely can’t survive here for long if she doesn’t get a life. But who will pick her up?

Who is Amelia? Where has she come from? Where is she going?

From the opening page, the reader is thrust into an uncomfortable reality. Amelia’s mother is dead, and while her best friend Sid is the only person in the world she can depend on, Sid’s cousin Zach is part of the past she is trying to escape. We travel with Amelia and Lucy. They obtain several lifts, some drivers are kind, others are not, and some are weird. But there is no place of safety for Amelia on the road and when she tries to find work or a place to live, there is no comfort there either.

This story is relentless: I kept reading, unsure whether Amelia or Lucy would survive. I kept reading, certain that Amelia could not escape through running and desperately wanting a resolution for her.

What can I write about this novel without ruining the impact of the writing? This is a novel best read without too much detail about the story: learn about Amelia’s choices as she makes them, understand why she is running as she shares that information. Admire Amelia’s courage, while questioning some of her choices. Travel with her: Ms Hind certainly makes that possible.

I finished the novel wanting more.

This is Ms Hind’s debut novel – the winner of the inaugural Penguin Literary prize.

Jennifer Cameron-Smith

#AWW2019

Love and Other Battles by Tess Wood

‘Jessica James never expected to fall for a soldier.’

This novel, which spans the lives of three generations of women from one family, starts in 1969. Jess James is a free-spirited young hippie. She’s against the Vietnam War, and the last thing she expected was to fall in love with a soldier about to leave for service there. In 1989, Jess’s daughter Jamie dreams of marriage and children, and then she meets a struggling musician. In 2017, Jamie’s daughter CJ ends up with the coolest boy at school, and the world changes for all three women. As the past collides with the present, all three learn that true love is not always where you expect to find it.

The battles the women face include the impact of the Vietnam War, the consequences of incurable illness and self-harm. I could relate to each of the women and their battles. I’m a little younger than Jess, but I remember the Vietnam moratorium protests (and marched in one). I could relate to Jamie and her struggle to connect with CJ, and I could absolutely relate to CJ’s struggles. But it isn’t just the women’s problems that make this novel so memorable: it’s their choices, and the way in which they support each other. Each of them has made (and will make) difficult choices. And whether you agree with the choices made, or not, they are completely congruent with the characters.

If you like novels with strong female characters dealing with real contemporary and difficult issues, then you may enjoy this novel as much as I did. But it’s not just a novel to read, it’s a novel to think about and then talk about. This is the first of Ms Woods’s novels I have read: I’ve added her others to my reading list.

Highly recommended.

Note: My thanks to NetGalley and HarperCollins Publishers Australia for providing me with a free electronic copy of this book for review purposes.

Jennifer Cameron-Smith

#AWW2019

Esther by Jessica North

‘Esther was travelling with over a thousand other people to an unknown future in an unknown land.’

Esther Abrahams was aged only 16 when, in 1786, she was sentenced to transportation to Australia for stealing 24 yards of black silk lace. She was transported to Botany Bay as part of the First Fleet in 1788. Over time Esther rose to become one of the most prominent women in the colony.

Once on shore, Esther became the servant of first lieutenant George Johnston. Over time they became lovers. And when George Johnston became Lieutenant-Governor of NSW after the Rum Rebellion deposed Governor William Bligh in 1808, Esther was the leading woman in the colony for a period of seven months. In the 1828 census, some five years after the death of George Johnston, she appeared as a free settler in possession of 2460 acres (996 ha).

Ms North undertook her research for this book over a period of ten years, after first encountering Esther in a book about women in Australian history. The paragraph said that Esther had been a convict on the First Fleet and had later become First Lady of NSW. Ms North was intrigued: she thought that she would have heard of Esther if this was true.

While Ms North documents the known facts of Esther’s life from a number of different sources, little is known of her origin. She was tried in the Old Bailey as ‘Esther Abrahams’ but by the time of her marriage to George Johnston in 1814 she was known as ‘Esther Julian’. During her trial she was represented by a barrister, which was unusual at that time, and three people appeared in court to declare that she was of very good character. We do know that she was Jewish, she was convicted of stealing 24 years of black silk lace valued at 50 shillings, that she was sentenced to be ‘transported beyond the seas for seven years’, and that she was pregnant.

Ms North’s research enabled her to find out more about Esther and her imagination enabled her to bring Esther to life. Through Esther’s story, we meet several of the people who shaped the European settlement of Australia. An interesting read, which I’d recommend to anyone wanting to know more about the early European settlement of Australia.

Jennifer Cameron-Smith

#AWW2019

The History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire by Edward Gibbon

‘Gibbon expressed the hope that his book would be read for two centuries.’

I first dipped into various volumes of this work in 1972, when I was studying Ancient History (Greek and Roman) at Launceston Matriculation College. I’d read it at the Launceston Library, initially as part of my search for different sources of information about the Roman Empire. No, I didn’t (then) read the entire six volumes. I didn’t have time. I was busy imagining my future, studying hard, wondering about possibilities.

Now, 47 years later, I’ve read the work (the Folio Edition, in eight volumes). As I read, I remembered the idealistic teenager who first picked up those books. I remembered wondering about how history was written (and by whom) about the influences on historiography. In 1972 Edward Gibbon’s work sparked my interest in Byzantine history (not his intention I am sure, but I was ever contrary).

Edward Gibbon’s History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire was published between 1776 and 1789. It took him seventeen years to write. While Gibbon’s views on the fall of the Roman Empire may be challenged by some modern historians, the History was (and remains) a remarkable achievement. I love it for two reasons. Firstly, opening the pages takes me back some 47 years in my own life into a time of (seemingly) endless possibility and into worlds far more interesting than the one I then inhabited. Secondly, Gibbon’s footnotes add such value to the text.

I read the History slowly, over a period of months. I could not have read it more quickly: I had both Gibbon’s journey and my own to undertake. And at the end, while I don’t completely agree that the Roman Empire failed solely because of its own weakness and the influence of Christianity, it makes sense in Gibbon’s worldview.

Will I read it again? No. My journey is complete. But I am tempted to revisit the Greek side of Ancient History, with Thucydides and Herodotus.

Jennifer Cameron-Smith

Welcome to Country: A Travel Guide to Indigenous Australia by Marcia Langton

‘Australia is alive with the long history of the Indigenous people, our culture and our presence.’

There are two parts to this beautifully presented book. The first part introduces Indigenous cultures, and the second part explores Indigenous Australia by State and Territory. Reading through this book made me aware of just how ignorant I am of so much Indigenous Australian culture and history. Partly this is because Indigenous history was not taught when I was at school in the 1960s (not in regional Tasmania, anyway) and partly it’s because my learning has focussed on European history.

This book provides a wonderful starting point for those of us who want to know more about the history and culture of Indigenous Australians. Part one of the book covers Indigenous languages and customs, art and dance, storytelling history and native title, as well as cultural awareness and etiquette for visitors. Perhaps most importantly, Professor Langton explains what ‘country’ means to Indigenous people. And, as I am reminded that I am reading about one of the oldest continuous cultures on earth, I can appreciate how important that connection to country is.

The second part of the book provides a comprehensive listing of Indigenous Australian experiences, including galleries, festivals, tours and performances as well as communities that are open to visitors. Importantly, this listing also includes information such as the distance to the nearest town, and (where applicable) restrictions on visiting.

Both Australians and visitors to Australia will find this book useful. For older Australians like me who grew up knowing little about the history of Australia before European settlement, this is an invaluable starting point. I’ve added several places to my ‘must visit’ list.

Jennifer Cameron-Smith

#AWW2019